After more than a year of low prices and industry-wide losses, raw material prices in the southern production regions are finally showing signs of stabilizing. Last week, the ex-factory prices of 500-800g tilapia in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan remained flat compared to the previous week. Although price increases have not yet emerged, positive factors supporting a price recovery are steadily accumulating. Major signals include progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations, a sharp reduction in fry stocking in the first half of the year pointing to tighter supply in the second half, and accelerated diversification of exports. Taken together, these signals point to an industry outlook that is being reassessed.

I. Initial signs of the price bottoming out; reduced fry stocking supports H2 rebound

In the 23rd week of 2026, raw material prices for tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) continued their recent stabilizing trend. Prices for 500-800g tilapia delivered to factories in the three major production regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan were unchanged from the previous week. Although increases are not yet visible, the halt in price declines is itself seen as an important signal that the market is emerging from the “bottoming out” phase. The core variable boosting market confidence comes from the policy front. Recent Sino-US trade negotiations have reached multiple consensuses, explicitly agreeing to reduce tariffs on US$30 billion worth of goods, including seafood. Affected by this, southern farmers have turned more optimistic about the outlook, and reluctance to sell is growing. Persistently low fish prices since the second half of 2025 caused many farmers to exit at a loss, leading to a sharp drop in fry orders. This will directly reduce China’s total tilapia production by about 20% in 2026. Entering the second half of the year, commercial fish supply will tighten significantly, providing strong fundamental support for a price rebound.

II. Export map reshaped: Southeast Asia and the domestic market become “twin engines”

The uncertainty of US tariff policies is forcing Chinese tilapia exporters to undergo a deep strategic transformation. The impact of high tariffs in 2025 made companies acutely aware of the vulnerability of over-reliance on a single market, and accelerating the diversification of export destinations has become an industry consensus. Two international seafood exhibitions at the end of May clearly outlined the direction of this transformation. At the Thaifex exhibition in Bangkok, a number of Chinese tilapia exporters were actively present, targeting the Southeast Asian market. At nearly the same time, at the Asia-Pacific Seafood Exposition in Dalian, another group of companies chose to focus on the domestic market, seeking growth through consumption upgrades and the pre-prepared food channel.

III. Ample US inventory dampens short-term demand; Vietnam signals cooperation

In the US market, wholesale prices for frozen tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) remained stable in the 22nd week. The sharp downward trend has largely stopped. Market participants report that while overall inventories remain high, downward pricing pressure has eased. Buyers remain cautious in purchasing, while sellers maintain selective discounting strategies to move inventory, with notable promotions on categories such as humid fillets.

If tariff adjustments are implemented as expected, US market demand could gradually pick up, but a sharp short-term surge is unlikely, as the market needs time to digest inventory and adapt to new trade conditions.

Meanwhile, new dynamics have emerged in regional cooperation. The Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) clearly expressed a willingness to deepen cooperation during the Dalian exhibition.

Although Vietnam’s tilapia output is far below China’s, its experience in seafood processing and export, along with its unique advantages in geography and trade agreements, makes it a potential partner for China’s tilapia industry. As Chinese companies seek to reduce dependence on the US, collaboration with Vietnam and other neighboring countries on tilapia, pangasius, and other species may open new prospects for China’s seafood exports.