When the “shockwaves” of international oil prices collide with the global seafood supply chain, the first to bear the brunt of the “stress test” is the seemingly ordinary skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). In early April, the price of skipjack tuna in the Bangkok market—the global benchmark for tuna pricing—continued to surge, fueled by geopolitical conflicts. More subtly, the market has split: deep-pocketed giants are still able to “buy the dip” and stock up, while numerous small and medium-sized canneries struggle on the edge of the cost line. On one side, raw material shortages persist due to low catches in the Pacific; on the other, shipping fuel costs burn cash by the hour. This cost tsunami ignited by distant conflicts is making the raw material for the world’s “king of canned fish” unprecedentedly expensive and fragile.

I. Oil Price “Frontline” Transmission: Bangkok Skipjack Market Shows “Big vs. Small” Divide

In the first week of April 2026, the landed price of skipjack tuna in Bangkok, Thailand, continued its strong upward trend. However, the market’s temperature is not felt uniformly. Industry information reveals that large buyers, leveraging their scale advantages and long-term contracts, can still lock in bulk supplies at the lower end of the current price range. In stark contrast, numerous small and medium-sized tuna canneries are caught in a passive position—to secure the raw materials necessary to keep production lines running, they are forced to accept transaction terms near the upper limit of market prices. This widening “big vs. small divide” clearly exposes the vast differences in risk resilience across different segments of the industry chain under cost pressures. The root cause points directly to the sharply fluctuating international crude oil market due to Middle East conflicts—marine fuel costs already account for 30% to 50% of the operating expenses of deep-sea fishing fleets, and any rise in oil prices translates directly and without cushion into increased fishing and logistics costs.

II. Geopolitics as the Biggest Variable: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Fully Exposed​

On April 2, international oil prices spiked abruptly following the latest developments in the Middle East situation—no coincidence. Since the escalation of conflict in the region in late February 2026, crude oil prices have climbed to multi-year highs. Analysis from global shipping giant Maersk hits the nail on the head: the most immediate and severe impact of the current conflict on seafood trade is the “spiraling rise” in marine fuel costs. Skipjack tuna, highly dependent on deep-sea fleets for catch and with trade flows spanning the globe, has become one of the most directly affected major seafood products by geopolitical risks. Beyond costs, the physical flow of the supply chain is also under threat. Market fears over the potential closure of the critical oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened global trade uncertainty. This dual risk of “cost” and “access” has made processing hubs reliant on global raw materials, such as Bangkok, exceptionally vulnerable. Some market participants warn that if the current situation persists, the high point of Bangkok skipjack prices could rise by another $50 per ton within a week.

III. Global Production Regions in “Two Different Worlds”: Ecuador Stands as the Sole “Stabilizer”​

Against the backdrop of rising prices across major global skipjack markets, Manta Port in Ecuador, South America, has emerged as a rare low-price zone. Although local skipjack supply is also tight, its ex-vessel price remained largely stable in week 14, even experiencing a slight pullback, making its price level significantly lower than the soaring Bangkok market. This is largely thanks to the relatively strong and stable catch performance of the Eastern Pacific fishing grounds, providing Ecuador with a localized supply buffer that partially insulates it from the direct impacts of global oil price and logistics turbulence. However, the outlook is less optimistic for other regions: catches in the Western and Central Pacific remain persistently low, directly affecting raw material arrivals in Bangkok; prices in the Indian Ocean, such as in Seychelles, have risen to nearly €1,500 per ton; and the Atlantic fishing grounds have entered a 45-day seasonal fishing moratorium, which will further reduce market supply. This regional supply-demand imbalance forces global buyers to rely more heavily on the few relatively stable sources and also signals that price fluctuations will become the new normal for the market in the foreseeable future.