Week 21 of 2026: China’s farm-gate prices for tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) remained stable across the three major producing regions, but market changes are brewing. U.S. President Trump concluded his visit to China on May 15, with both sides reaching multiple consensus in the agricultural sector, raising expectations for tariff reductions and bringing a “glimmer of hope” to the persistently depressed tilapia export industry. However, supply-side contraction has become evident—a sharp decline in fry stocking will lead to tighter raw material supply after the second quarter, while high inventory levels in the U.S. market continue to suppress demand. Against the backdrop of accelerating export diversification, China’s tilapia industry stands at a rebalancing point between supply and demand. Below is a detailed analysis.

I. Tariff Outlook – A “Glimmer of Hope” for the Tilapia Industry After Trump’s Visit to China
After Trump concluded his visit to China on May 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that the economic and trade teams of both sides had achieved “positive outcomes,” including consensus on removing non-tariff barriers for agricultural products and implementing reciprocal tariff reductions. In exchange, China will purchase 200 Boeing aircraft and more U.S. soybeans. Although the statement did not explicitly mention tilapia or seafood, the progress is still seen by China’s tilapia industry as a significant positive—by trade value, tilapia is China’s largest seafood export category to the U.S. The possibility of tariff reductions may bring a “glimmer of hope” to the long-stressed tilapia industry: “Once tariff reductions are implemented, export competitiveness will quickly recover, orders are expected to rebound, processors will increase purchases, supporting a rise in farm-gate prices.” Hainan processing companies are generally cautiously optimistic, with some believing concrete progress could occur before the end of June. However, some sources note that even if tariffs are lowered, any increase in end-market prices may be delayed by months as existing inventories need to be absorbed.

II. Supply Contraction – The Consequences of Sharply Reduced Fry Stocking Are Emerging
Over the past year, persistently low fish prices have severely dented farmer confidence. From the second half of 2025 to early 2026, fry stocking volumes in major production areas fell by 20%-30%, causing a collapse in fry demand. The direct effect of reduced stocking will concentrate in the second quarter of 2026—as pond inventories are drawn down, supplies of 500-800g raw material will gradually tighten. The industry expects a noticeable raw material gap after June. “No matter how Sino-U.S. trade evolves, overall raw material supply has fallen significantly, and prices will inevitably trend upward,” said the head of a large processing company in Hainan. However, he also cautioned that due to relatively high existing inventory levels, end-market price increases may lag behind raw material prices. This judgment aligns with industry expectations from December 2025, which pointed to moderate supply tightening in Q2 2026 and potential significant shortages after June. Of note, despite tightening supply, raw material prices have not yet risen sharply, remaining stable in week 21. This suggests the market is still digesting earlier inventory, and demand-side recovery will take time. If tariff reductions materialize and processing companies release procurement demand, prices could rise rapidly.

III. Market Diversification – Mexico and Côte d’Ivoire Surpass the U.S. as Top Export Destinations
In January-February 2026, Mexico and Côte d’Ivoire surpassed the United States to become the largest destinations for China’s frozen tilapia exports. This milestone marks a profound shift in China’s tilapia export pattern: Chinese suppliers are accelerating market diversification, reducing dependence on the single U.S. market. In the first two months of 2026, U.S. imports of tilapia from China fell year-on-year, only resuming year-on-year growth in March. In the U.S. wholesale market, frozen tilapia prices continued to decline in week 20, but the pace of decline slowed. Buyers remained cautious, focusing mainly on managing existing inventories, while sellers made selective price concessions to stimulate transactions. Overall trading activity remained sluggish, indicating that the U.S. market is still digesting high inventory levels. Market diversification is both an active choice and a passive response. The comprehensive tariff rate on Chinese tilapia in the U.S. remains high, long suppressing import demand. Even as the outlook for tariff reductions improves, China’s tilapia industry has begun exploring new growth paths—Mexico, Côte d’Ivoire, Africa, and other emerging markets are becoming important export destinations. This trend is expected to accelerate further in the second half of 2026, reducing the industry’s sensitivity to Sino-U.S. trade fluctuations.