In week 34 of 2026, China’s raw tilapia prices stabilized after weeks of gains. However, market supply remains tight.
Reduced fry stocking in H1 2026 caused a sustained raw material shortage, making fish sourcing difficult for processors.
New U.S. tariff policies have brought export uncertainties. Chinese exporters face dual pressure of rising costs and shrinking profits.
🔹 1. Domestic Raw Material Market: Stable Prices & Lingering Shortage
▪ Price Performance
In week 34, mainstream tilapia sizes (300-500g / 500-800g) in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan remained flat week on week.
▪ Supply Tightness
Sluggish tilapia prices in the first half of 2026 discouraged fry stocking, leading to insufficient current supply.
▪ Future Outlook
Fry stocking saw a mild recovery in August but remained lower year-on-year. With a 6-month breeding cycle, supply relief is not expected until February 2027.
🔹 2. U.S. Tariff & Export Environment: High Uncertainty & Falling Imports
▪ Tariff Impact
The U.S. imposed an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff on Chinese goods from July 24. No clear implementation rules have been released, rendering U.S. orders unprofitable.
▪ Import Data
U.S. wholesale frozen tilapia prices stayed steady on sufficient inventory.
U.S. imports of Chinese frozen tilapia fillets fell 16% YoY to 35,600 tons (78.57 million lbs) from January to June 2026.
🔹 3. Industrial Chain & Export Restructuring: Cost Squeeze & Market Diversification
▪ Processor Pressure
Recovering raw fish prices have stimulated restocking, but new output cannot ease short-term shortages.
Processors are squeezed by higher raw costs and weak export prices.
▪ Limited Cost Pass-through
Cautious U.S. procurement and sufficient inventory prevent cost hikes from being passed to terminal prices. The China-U.S. price gap continues to widen.
▪ Export Structure Shift Mexico has surpassed China in U.S. tilapia export volume. Fast-growing African markets (e.g., Côte d’Ivoire) are absorbing more Chinese output, offsetting U.S. market risks.